The Vietnam Model
Michael O’Hanlon examines what North Korea could be in the future
The key is to focus on basic change in North Korea. What might a reformed North Korea look like? Vietnam today. That former US enemy has restructured its economy and begun to open its society and politics while retaining communism as official dogma. The process started in the 1980s and accelerated thereafter, culminating in normalization of ties in the Clinton era. Vietnam’s annual economic growth averaged just 2.6 percent in the 70s, but 3.6 percent in the 80s and more than 7 percent since then. Today, North Korea is about where Vietnam was in the late 1970s. That is not a great place to be, but the analogy leaves room for hope.
To be sure, it would be wonderful if North Korean leaders would simply reject communism. But that’s about as likely as leader Kim Jong Il giving up his luxury cars and cognac. The good news is that they (and he) need not. Vietnam has proved that a more gradual path to reform can work for all concerned, including the US and its regional allies.
Not exactly the best model but the best we can hope for.
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